Some people look back thinking what they have done. Others look back wondering what they have not. If I were to rewrite my life all over again, it may perhaps be entirely different. I never thought I would say that, because I have always enjoyed life at its fullest, in its various phases. But life has its way of unfolding itself as a satire. It leaves you in bewilderment, in wonder. You try to create meaning of the present by making sense of the past, but it only leaves you in doubt and fear of the future.

How many heartaches do I have to go through before I know I am happy again.

You know it’s time to grow up when you start talking and thinking, and talking, and thinking about your career plan. Whether this is what you gonna do for life, whether there is something else out there. That’s the problem with our generation i guess. Too many options, exposed to so many things, you feel that the world is your oyster and you can’t quite settle down. The opportunity cost of committing to something is so high, and the grass is constantly greener on the other side. Your one hundred and one ideals come crashing down to reality, and the presence of ennui starts taking you over.

If i am brave enough, or rich enough, i would have made a total career switch and be a photographer/travel journalist. Too bad i have no flair for aesthetics and language. Would love to possess the eye for beauty, the ability to craft flowery language and romanticize the things i see.

I am definitely not a political person, nor do i adore game theory (having caught no ball during my microeconomics class in school). But i found this Reuters article really interesting.

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – For those who see North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as a dangerous lunatic prepared to risk the annihilation of his regime by launching a devastating attack on his neighbors, there is no shortage of supporting evidence.

He uses platform shoes and bouffant hair to appear taller. His official media churns out hagiographic tales of his almost superhuman talents — including the world’s greatest round of golf, 38 under par with 5 holes in one. And his stance in nuclear negotiations frequently appears contradictory and confounding.

But for analysts and policymakers trying to gauge the chance of a catastrophic war, game theory offers a crucial insight. In Kim’s position, it is perfectly sane to seem mad. And it would be a disaster for him if the world believed he was rational.

This has fundamental implications for risk analysis. Above all, it means investors should avoid overreacting to signs of rising tension. The doomsday scenario of full-scale war on the Korean peninsula is an extremely remote possibility.

“He is frequently described as irrational, eccentric and dangerous. Most assuredly he is the last of those, but irrational and lightweight — I think not,” said Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, who specializes in political forecasting based on game theory, and who advised the U.S. Defense Department on Korea in 2004.

“No fool stays in power for years … when there are so many generals, sons and wives waiting in the wings to launch a coup.”

For years, Kim has veered unpredictably between belligerence and conciliation. In May he stunned the world with a nuclear test after earlier walking out of disarmament talks, vowing never to return. This month he made a conditional offer to restart talks, before wrong footing observers again with short-range missile tests.

Viewed in terms of game theory, this behavior is entirely rational. In fact, it is Kim’s only viable strategy.

THE MADMAN THEORY

For game theorists like Bueno de Mesquita, the overriding objective of political leaders is the same — survival.

Viewed in this context, Kim’s actions should be interpreted as designed to maintain his internal grip on power and protect his regime against any foreign efforts to overthrow it. This is why he has put military strength above even feeding his people.

A second insight from game theory is that the decisions of players are shaped by their beliefs about how other players will respond. Each side tries to anticipate the actions of the other.

Despite the world’s highest military spending as a percentage of GDP, North Korea is at a fundamental disadvantage — South Korea is backed by the might of the United States. Kim could inflict devastating damage on South Korea in any war, but the result would be massive retaliation that finished his regime.

So it would be irrational for Kim ever to launch a major attack — the inevitable result would be the end of his regime. The United States and its allies know this. The only way Kim can leverage his weaker military power is by making his opponents believe he may be crazy enough to launch a war anyway.

This strategy not only allows Kim to deter foreign attacks, but also gets him the maximum concessions in talks to give up the nuclear bomb. Because the other negotiating nations believe the threat Kim would use nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out, they are prepared to offer much more to remove this risk.

By signaling that he is irrational and unpredictable, Kim can turn a weak set of cards into a winning hand.

Washington and its allies face the opposite problem — they are unable to make Kim believe their threats are credible.

Despite the frequent U.S. insistence that a nuclear North Korea is unacceptable, Pyongyang has never faced significant consequences for breaking promises and making threats, beyond economic sanctions which have only limited effectiveness.

Kim would not be the first world leader to adopt a strategy of calculated irrationality. It has been used repeatedly in history, not least by former U.S. President Richard Nixon.

Nixon tried to convince the Soviet Union, North Vietnam and other enemy states that he was unbalanced enough to launch a nuclear attack at the slightest provocation. “I call it the Madman Theory, Bob,” he told his Chief of Staff H.R. Haldeman.

Nobel economics laureate Thomas Schelling explained “the rationality of irrationality” in his seminal 1960 work on game theory, The Strategy of Conflict. And as far back as the 16th Century, Italian political theorist Niccolo Machiavelli wrote that it can be “a very wise thing to simulate madness.”

It is possible Kim would risk a suicidal war he cannot win. But a far more likely scenario is that he is bluffing — or, in game theory terms, strategically leveraging a weak bargaining position by faking irrationality to make his threats credible.

Such a strategy would entail sudden policy changes, frequent brinkmanship and grandiose threats, and a willingness to initiate isolated military skirmishes, while preventing conflict escalating. This is exactly how Pyongyang has behaved for years.

In this interpretation of North Korean behavior, investors and markets should not take North Korean threats and provocations seriously. Periodic escalations of tension should be regarded as distractions which don’t change the underlying risk calculus. Any panicky market sell-off should be seen as buying opportunities.

A second implication is that while Kim remains leader of North Korea, the country will remain a constant source of regional scares. Kim’s strategy has repeatedly won him concessions, and also helps him maintain his internal grip on power. There is no reason for him to throw away his best cards.

Quite fascinating eh? The way power, survival, tactics and psychology interplay, and taking on such a presence in politics.

I should tell my tutee’s mum about this. She’s been pretty worried about her family in Seoul.

i really miss you, my friend, and the times we’ve shared. i really need to let go.

i think i am changing. a lot. i don’t tell people things anymore.

happy birthday dear porky!!!

Tioman was nothing short of amazing. Great company, great beach, great people we met along the way. The best part was the plethora of amazing marine life – from elegant, exotic coral reeves to colorful fishes. I felt like i was in a real-life aquarium. All this with just a snorkeling mask, a life jacket, a few metres off our resort.

A pity we didn’t have any underwater camera. Photos up soon!

i am a happy girl again.

been trying to sort out my thoughts these days, with very positive and objective thinking. me thinks sometimes happiness doesnt come by easily, so we have to make the best out of everything we have and appreciate people just the way they are. especially the ones you love.

cheesy i know, but it’s true.

in any case, i havent known of people who are thinking too much and feeling happy. i still remember my happy-go-lucky days when i am easily satiated by the simple things in life. like a cup of starbucks coffee, or listening to music in a cosy room and peering over the window pane. the daydreaming, the reverie, the escapades from the doldrums of everyday life. in short, think less, be happy. that goes out to you too, my dear friend.

i heart my new blog header! it’s a nice little cafe in paris. like most of europe, the seats face outwards, and one can enjoy his cup of coffee while watching the world go by. sigh, the simple pleasures in life.

my facebook astrology profile says i am in the mood for big, big changes today, and it is strangely absolutely right. at certain stages in your life, you know you want to gain fresh perspectives and learn something exciting about life. these few months, i’ve been feeling uninterested, and alone. my old crazy silly self seems to be disappearing. and it’s been a long time since i had a good laugh or a good conversation with someone. i suddenly feel like working in a foreign country, or do something completely out of the norm, just to get away from all these.

i don’t know, i shan’t say. i am not certain but i am not ruling out the possibility either. i hate to be proven right, but let’s see how it goes.

sorry for that blabber. anyway the spa consultant today told me i look like a manager in customer service. hmmmms what is that supposed to mean?